Future Statin Measures Cutpoint Predictions

In a previous post, we outlined our methods and results for creating a standardized star cutoff system. This system gave us a general guideline to follow when predicting where a cutpoint will fall in terms of percentile: the 6^th, 21^st, 43^rd, and 71^st percentiles for the 2, 3, 4, and 5 star cutpoints, respectively. We will now look to see how this system applies to the three future measures (HPC was pushed back to the 2022 Stars as stated in the Advance Notice).

The graphs above show the two future statin measure distributions and where our methodology has their approximate cutpoints falling (red=1 star, green =5 star). Except for a couple outliers, the distributions are both normal, giving our predictions weight. If we were to remove the outliers in each of the graphs, we could expect the cutoffs to be shifted one or two percentage points up.

Before coming to any conclusions, we must remember that this is last year’s data. Unless everyone’s scores remain the exactly same, the distribution will shift. However, the one thing that should remain somewhat constant is the percentile cutoffs (the value of the percentiles will change with the distribution). While you may not be able to say I need “x%” to obtain 4 stars, you should be able to say I need to do better than approximately “x% of contracts” to obtain 4 stars. Although this data will not be used in the future, it is useful to see how you currently compare to your competitors and peers.

How will this affect my overall star rating?

Use our “stars planner” tool and search for your contract to find out. Scroll down to the future measures at the bottom and click the box that corresponds to your score. Your new score will be calculated below.

Don’t like the score you see?

Baltimore Health Analytics can help. We offer end-to-end experience with software development and healthcare quality analytics. We will meet you were you are, fill in wherever help is needed, and pivot to wherever the opportunity is greatest.